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Rentistas vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 20:00

Rentistas

PPG 0.91 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fenix

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS 49% chance

Model probability 50.0% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.9%0-112.2%0-26.9%0-32.6%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.9%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-06.5%2-17.3%2-24.1%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-02.4%3-12.7%3-21.5%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.9%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% 36.4% 2.75 -0.4%

Draw 27.9% 38.2% 2.62 -16.1%

Away win 35.9% 38.2% 2.62 -5.9%

Over 2.5 44.5% 42.0% 2.38 +5.9%

Over 3.5 25.5% 22.2% 4.50 +8.8%

BTTS 50.0% 48.8% 2.05 +2.5%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.6% 2.98 -8.2%

Away O1.5 33.2% 34.2% 2.92 -3.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob50.0%

H 36% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 44% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 1–0 11.9%

#3 0–0 10.9%

#4 0–1 12.2%

#5 2–1 7.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rentistas1.1

Fenix1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

RENTISTAS · PPG 0.91

FENIX · PPG 1.30

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.03, combined xG 2.22 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Rentistas (H) 36.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -0.4%

Draw 27.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -16.1%

Fenix (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rentistas face Fenix in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rentistas a 36% chance, the draw 28% and Fenix 36%, so Rentistas are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Rentistas and 1.1 for Fenix (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rentistas are averaging 0.91 points per game versus 1.30 for Fenix. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Rentistas vs Fenix Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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