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Tacuarembo vs Oriental Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

2nd Phase · Matchday 17 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:00

Tacuarembo

PPG 1.30 · HOME

UPCOMING

Oriental

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.0%0-115.0%0-28.0%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.4%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-05.6%2-16.0%2-23.2%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.7%3-11.8%3-21.0%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.0% 32.3% 3.10 -6.1%

Draw 29.1% 37.0% 2.70 -12.9%

Away win 42.0% 42.0% 2.38 -0.0%

Over 2.5 39.3% 40.0% 2.50 -1.8%

Over 3.5 20.7% 20.6% 4.85 +0.2%

BTTS 48.0% 47.6% 2.10 +0.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 31.1% 3.22 -0.8%

Away O1.5 32.6% 37.2% 2.69 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 39 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 49%

ROI -32.8%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob48.0%

A 42% / xG 0.9-1.1 / U2.5 39% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 15.0%

#2 0–0 14.0%

#3 1–1 13.4%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tacuarembo0.9

Oriental1.1

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TACUAREMBO · PPG 1.30

ORIENTAL · PPG 1.18

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

48%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.18, combined xG 1.96 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Tacuarembo (H) 29.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -6.1%

Draw 29.1%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.9%

Oriental (A) 42.0%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV -0.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tacuarembo face Oriental in Uruguay - Segunda División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tacuarembo a 29% chance, the draw 29% and Oriental 42%, so Oriental are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Tacuarembo and 1.1 for Oriental (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tacuarembo are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.18 for Oriental. The best value bet our model finds is both teams to score, with an expected value of +0.8%.

Tacuarembo vs Oriental Prediction— Uruguay - Segunda División

Match Preview & Prediction

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