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Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 17:30

Universitatea Craiova

PPG 2.16 · HOME

LAST 5

WLDWD

UPCOMING

Universitatea Cluj

PPG 1.16 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 65.2% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.2%0-22.1%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-09.0%1-19.1%1-24.6%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.1%3-17.2%3-23.6%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.4%4+-16.5%4+-23.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 62.5% 1.60 -8.3%

Draw 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Away win 21.5% 20.8% 4.80 +1.9%

Over 2.5 61.8% 58.8% 1.70 +5.1%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

BTTS 57.9% 57.8% 1.73 +0.2%

Home O1.5 65.2% 61.7% 1.62 +5.6%

Away O1.5 31.3% 28.6% 3.50 +9.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob57.9%

H 57% / xG 2.2-1.0 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 58%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.1%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 3–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Universitatea Craiova2.2

Universitatea Cluj1.0

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

UNIVERSITATEA CRAIOVA · PPG 2.16

UNIVERSITATEA CLUJ · PPG 1.16

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.16 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Universitatea Craiova (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -8.3%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Universitatea Cluj (A) 21.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +1.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Universitatea Craiova face Universitatea Cluj in Romania - Liga I on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Universitatea Craiova a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Universitatea Cluj 22%, so Universitatea Craiova are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Universitatea Craiova and 1.0 for Universitatea Cluj (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 58% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Universitatea Craiova are averaging 2.16 points per game versus 1.16 for Universitatea Cluj. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +11.3%.

Universitatea Craiova vs Universitatea Cluj Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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