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FC Voluntari vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Matchday 8 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 14:30

FC Voluntari

PPG 1.39 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLLD

UPCOMING

Arges Pitesti

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDLL

// Model verdict

BTTS 52% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-111.2%0-26.0%0-32.1%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.6%1-113.3%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.4%2-17.9%2-24.2%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.9%3-13.1%3-21.6%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 34.5% 2.90 +12.5%

Draw 27.8% 33.3% 3.00 -10.0%

Away win 33.4% 41.7% 2.40 -19.8%

Over 2.5 50.2% 42.6% 2.35 +18.0%

Over 3.5 28.1% 23.1% 4.33 +13.0%

BTTS 52.9% 51.3% 1.95 +3.1%

Home O1.5 33.0% 33.3% 3.00 -1.0%

Away O1.5 32.5% 38.2% 2.62 -14.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 29 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 48%

O2.5 62%

BTTS 52%

Score Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 39% / xG 1.2-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.3%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 0–0 10.6%

#4 0–1 11.2%

#5 2–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Voluntari1.2

Arges Pitesti1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.2% · O3.5 PROB 28.1%

Form & verdict PPG

FC VOLUNTARI · PPG 1.39

ARGES PITESTI · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

Chance this pick lands

52%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.12, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Voluntari (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +12.5%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -10.0%

Arges Pitesti (A) 33.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -19.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Voluntari face Arges Pitesti in Romania - Liga I on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Voluntari a 39% chance, the draw 28% and Arges Pitesti 33%, so FC Voluntari are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for FC Voluntari and 1.1 for Arges Pitesti (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Voluntari are averaging 1.39 points per game versus 1.27 for Arges Pitesti. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +23.2%.

FC Voluntari vs Arges Pitesti Prediction— Romania - Liga I

Match Preview & Prediction

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