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Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Matchday 29 ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Rīgas FS

PPG 2.31 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDW

UPCOMING

FK Liepaja

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 77% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 76.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.7%0-12.0%0-20.7%0-30.2%0-4+0.0%1 1-07.8%1-15.7%1-22.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.2%2-18.2%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-010.8%3-17.9%3-22.9%3-30.7%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-015.8%4+-111.5%4+-24.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 70.4% 75.2% 1.33 -6.4%

Draw 15.9% 20.0% 5.00 -12.3%

Away win 13.7% 15.4% 6.50 -6.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 69.4% 1.44 -1.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 50.0% 2.00 -10.0%

BTTS 54.6% 57.8% 1.73 -5.5%

Home O1.5 77.9% 76.9% 1.30 +1.3%

Away O1.5 18.8% 23.1% 4.33 -11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 102 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 61%

BTTS 55%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 22.9%

Bet Hit 73%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob54.6%

H 70% / xG 2.9-0.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.2%

#2 3–0 10.8%

#3 1–1 5.7%

#4 2–1 8.2%

#5 3–1 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Rīgas FS2.9

FK Liepaja0.7

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

RĪGAS FS · PPG 2.31

FK LIEPAJA · PPG 0.93

✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

77%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +2.16 for Home, form 2.31 vs 0.93 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Rīgas FS (H) 70.4%

ODDS 1.33 · IMPLIED 75.2% EV -6.4%

Draw 15.9%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -12.3%

FK Liepaja (A) 13.7%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Rīgas FS face FK Liepaja in Latvia - Virsliga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Rīgas FS a 70% chance, the draw 16% and FK Liepaja 14%, so Rīgas FS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Rīgas FS and 0.7 for FK Liepaja (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Rīgas FS are averaging 2.31 points per game versus 0.93 for FK Liepaja. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +5.1%.

Rīgas FS vs FK Liepaja Prediction— Latvia - Virsliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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