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Klubi-04 vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Group Stage ·Monday, September 7, 2026, 16:00

Klubi-04

PPG 0.80 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDWW

UPCOMING

KäPa

PPG 0.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 55.2% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.8%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.1%1-26.3%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.0%2-19.4%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.6%3-14.9%3-22.6%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.7%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 54.1% 1.85 -5.8%

Draw 24.2% 30.3% 3.30 -12.1%

Away win 24.9% 30.3% 3.30 -10.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 65.4% 1.53 -17.7%

Over 3.5 33.5% 44.4% 2.25 -24.6%

BTTS 55.2% 66.7% 1.50 -17.2%

Home O1.5 45.9% 59.9% 1.67 -23.4%

Away O1.5 32.5% 42.0% 2.38 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 41 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 46%

Score Hit 42%

ROI -12.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.2%

H 51% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.4%

#4 2–0 9.0%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Klubi-041.6

KäPa1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUBI-04 · PPG 0.80

KÄPA · PPG 0.73

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.51 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Klubi-04 (H) 50.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -5.8%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.1%

KäPa (A) 24.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Klubi-04 face KäPa in Finland - Ykkosliga on Monday, September 7, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Klubi-04 a 51% chance, the draw 24% and KäPa 25%, so Klubi-04 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Klubi-04 and 1.0 for KäPa (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Klubi-04 are averaging 0.80 points per game versus 0.73 for KäPa.

Klubi-04 vs KäPa Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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