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Independiente Petrolero vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Apertura · Matchday 18 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 19:00

Independiente Petrolero

PPG 1.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Bolívar

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 69% chance

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-18.2%0-25.3%0-32.3%0-4+1.0%1 1-09.3%1-112.0%1-27.8%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.8%2-18.8%2-25.7%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.3%3-14.3%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.2%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 39.1% 20.0% 5.00 +95.5%

Draw 24.3% 25.0% 4.00 -1.7%

Away win 36.5% 66.7% 1.50 -45.3%

Over 2.5 59.6% 73.5% 1.36 -18.9%

Over 3.5 36.4% 52.4% 1.91 -30.5%

BTTS 59.0% 69.4% 1.44 -15.0%

Home O1.5 39.9% 38.2% 2.62 +4.5%

Away O1.5 39.1% 71.4% 1.40 -45.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 60 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 57%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -28.6%

Bet Hit 46%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 39% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 7.8%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 0–1 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Independiente Petrolero1.5

Bolívar1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

INDEPENDIENTE PETROLERO · PPG 1.56

BOLÍVAR · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Independiente Petrolero (H) 39.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +95.5%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -1.7%

Bolívar (A) 36.5%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -45.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Independiente Petrolero face Bolívar in Bolivia - Primera División on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Independiente Petrolero a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Bolívar 37%, so Independiente Petrolero are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Independiente Petrolero and 1.3 for Bolívar (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Independiente Petrolero are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.75 for Bolívar. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +96.8%.

Independiente Petrolero vs Bolívar Prediction— Bolivia - Primera División

Match Preview & Prediction

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