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SK Beveren vs OH Leuven Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 17:15

SK Beveren

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLL ·

UPCOMING

OH Leuven

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 63% chance

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-17.3%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.8%1-26.5%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.5%2-19.5%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.7%3 3-04.6%3-15.1%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.6%4+-12.9%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.5% 43.5% 2.30 +7.0%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 29.3% 37.0% 2.70 -12.5%

Over 2.5 53.8% 62.5% 1.60 -13.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 40.0% 2.50 -20.8%

BTTS 55.0% 66.7% 1.50 -17.5%

Home O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

Away O1.5 33.2% 47.6% 2.10 -30.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.0%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–0 10.6%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 1–2 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SK Beveren1.6

OH Leuven1.1

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SK BEVEREN · PPG 1.75

OH LEUVEN · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

63%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

SK Beveren (H) 46.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +7.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

OH Leuven (A) 29.3%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -12.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

SK Beveren face OH Leuven in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SK Beveren a 47% chance, the draw 24% and OH Leuven 29%, so SK Beveren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for SK Beveren and 1.1 for OH Leuven (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SK Beveren are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.84 for OH Leuven. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +4.2%.

SK Beveren vs OH Leuven Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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