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Anderlecht vs Kortrijk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:30

Anderlecht

PPG 1.89 · HOME

LAST 5

WLL ··

UPCOMING

Kortrijk

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLL ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-15.9%0-23.4%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-09.3%1-110.7%1-26.2%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.5%2-19.8%2-25.6%2-32.2%2-4+0.8%3 3-05.2%3-15.9%3-23.4%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-14.1%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.2% 66.7% 1.50 -21.7%

Draw 23.8% 23.1% 4.33 +1.8%

Away win 24.1% 17.4% 5.75 +23.1%

Over 2.5 59.6% 63.7% 1.57 -6.4%

Over 3.5 36.4% 41.7% 2.40 -12.6%

BTTS 56.9% 61.7% 1.62 -7.8%

Home O1.5 52.1% 67.6% 1.48 -22.9%

Away O1.5 33.2% 29.9% 3.35 +11.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob56.9%

H 52% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.5%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 1–2 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anderlecht1.8

Kortrijk1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ANDERLECHT · PPG 1.89

KORTRIJK · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Anderlecht (H) 52.2%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -21.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV +1.8%

Kortrijk (A) 24.1%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +23.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anderlecht face Kortrijk in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anderlecht a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Kortrijk 24%, so Anderlecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Anderlecht and 1.2 for Kortrijk (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anderlecht are averaging 1.89 points per game versus 1.25 for Kortrijk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +35.5%.

Anderlecht vs Kortrijk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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