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Standard Liege vs Antwerp Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:45

Standard Liege

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWW ·

UPCOMING

Antwerp

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDL ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.1% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+11.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-16.1%0-23.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.7%1 1-08.5%1-110.8%1-26.9%1-32.9%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.5%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-04.4%3-15.6%3-23.6%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-13.6%4+-22.3%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.3% 46.5% 2.15 +1.7%

Draw 23.6% 28.2% 3.55 -9.7%

Away win 29.1% 32.3% 3.10 -5.9%

Over 2.5 62.1% 55.6% 1.80 +11.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

BTTS 61.5% 61.7% 1.62 -0.4%

Home O1.5 49.9% 48.8% 2.05 +2.3%

Away O1.5 37.6% 39.2% 2.55 -4.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.5%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.3 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Standard Liege1.8

Antwerp1.3

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.1% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

STANDARD LIEGE · PPG 1.46

ANTWERP · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Standard Liege (H) 47.3%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.7%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -9.7%

Antwerp (A) 29.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Standard Liege face Antwerp in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Standard Liege a 47% chance, the draw 24% and Antwerp 29%, so Standard Liege are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Standard Liege and 1.3 for Antwerp (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Standard Liege are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 1.48 for Antwerp. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +20.6%.

Standard Liege vs Antwerp Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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