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St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:45

St. Truiden

PPG 1.47 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWL ·

UPCOMING

RAAL La Louvière

PPG 0.76 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.0 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.9% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.6%0-23.0%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-09.8%1-110.5%1-25.6%1-32.0%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.3%2-19.9%2-25.3%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.8%3-16.2%3-23.3%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.2%4+-14.5%4+-22.4%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 61.0% 1.64 -13.7%

Draw 23.5% 25.3% 3.95 -4.3%

Away win 24.0% 20.0% 5.00 +12.0%

Over 2.5 59.9% 57.1% 1.75 +4.8%

Over 3.5 37.2% 34.7% 2.88 +7.1%

BTTS 59.0% 57.8% 1.73 +2.1%

Home O1.5 55.8% 60.6% 1.65 -7.9%

Away O1.5 32.5% 29.0% 3.45 +12.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob59.0%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.3%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 1–2 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Truiden1.9

RAAL La Louvière1.1

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.9% · O3.5 PROB 37.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. TRUIDEN · PPG 1.47

RAAL LA LOUVIÈRE · PPG 0.76

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.82 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

St. Truiden (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.64 · IMPLIED 61.0% EV -13.7%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.3%

RAAL La Louvière (A) 24.0%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +12.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Truiden face RAAL La Louvière in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Truiden a 53% chance, the draw 24% and RAAL La Louvière 24%, so St. Truiden are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for St. Truiden and 1.1 for RAAL La Louvière (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Truiden are averaging 1.47 points per game versus 0.76 for RAAL La Louvière. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.1%.

St. Truiden vs RAAL La Louvière Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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