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Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Kortrijk

PPG 1.07 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLL ·

UPCOMING

Zulte Waregem

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWD ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.9%0-19.7%0-27.9%0-34.3%0-4+2.5%1 1-07.1%1-111.5%1-29.4%1-35.1%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.2%2-16.9%2-25.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.7%3-22.2%3-31.2%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.4% 32.3% 3.10 -9.0%

Draw 23.9% 30.3% 3.30 -12.7%

Away win 48.7% 47.6% 2.10 +2.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 59.9% 1.67 -10.2%

Over 3.5 33.1% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

BTTS 54.6% 61.7% 1.62 -11.6%

Home O1.5 33.0% 40.0% 2.50 -17.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 54.6% 1.83 -12.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob54.6%

A 49% / xG 1.2-1.6 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–2 9.4%

#3 0–1 9.7%

#4 0–2 7.9%

#5 2–1 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kortrijk1.2

Zulte Waregem1.6

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KORTRIJK · PPG 1.07

ZULTE WAREGEM · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.45 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kortrijk (H) 27.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.7%

Zulte Waregem (A) 48.7%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kortrijk face Zulte Waregem in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kortrijk a 27% chance, the draw 24% and Zulte Waregem 49%, so Zulte Waregem are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Kortrijk and 1.6 for Zulte Waregem (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kortrijk are averaging 1.07 points per game versus 1.18 for Zulte Waregem. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Kortrijk vs Zulte Waregem Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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