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Anderlecht vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 16:30

Anderlecht

PPG 2.04 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLW ·

UPCOMING

Genk

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 60% chance

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.7%0-24.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.3%1 1-07.3%1-110.8%1-28.0%1-33.9%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.9%2-18.7%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-03.2%3-14.7%3-23.5%3-31.7%3-4+0.9%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-12.7%4+-22.0%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 43.5% 2.30 -11.5%

Draw 23.6% 30.3% 3.30 -13.3%

Away win 37.9% 36.4% 2.75 +4.2%

Over 2.5 61.7% 59.9% 1.67 +3.0%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 48.1% 47.6% 2.10 +1.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 44.4% 2.25 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.5%

H 38% / xG 1.6-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 8.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 2–0 5.9%

#5 0–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Anderlecht1.6

Genk1.5

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ANDERLECHT · PPG 2.04

GENK · PPG 1.20

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.14 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Anderlecht (H) 38.5%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -11.5%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.3%

Genk (A) 37.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +4.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Anderlecht face Genk in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Anderlecht a 39% chance, the draw 24% and Genk 38%, so Anderlecht are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Anderlecht and 1.5 for Genk (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Anderlecht are averaging 2.04 points per game versus 1.20 for Genk. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +5.3%.

Anderlecht vs Genk Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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