Today / Belgium - Jupiler Pro League / Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Charleroi

PPG 1.79 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWW ·

UPCOMING

Union St. Gilloise

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-110.0%0-26.3%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-010.1%1-112.7%1-28.0%1-33.4%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.4%2-18.1%2-25.1%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 32.3% 3.10 +15.0%

Draw 26.6% 29.4% 3.40 -5.7%

Away win 36.3% 45.5% 2.20 -20.1%

Over 2.5 50.6% 52.6% 1.90 -3.9%

Over 3.5 28.7% 30.8% 3.25 -4.0%

BTTS 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Home O1.5 38.4% 37.0% 2.70 +3.7%

Away O1.5 36.8% 47.6% 2.10 -22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 26 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 58%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 62%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 21%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob53.5%

H 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 10.1%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 7.9%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Charleroi1.3

Union St. Gilloise1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CHARLEROI · PPG 1.79

UNION ST. GILLOISE · PPG 1.93

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Charleroi (H) 37.1%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +15.0%

Draw 26.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.7%

Union St. Gilloise (A) 36.3%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Charleroi face Union St. Gilloise in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Charleroi a 37% chance, the draw 27% and Union St. Gilloise 36%, so Charleroi are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Charleroi and 1.3 for Union St. Gilloise (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Charleroi are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.93 for Union St. Gilloise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +12.3%.

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

More Belgium - Jupiler Pro League Predictions