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Cercle Brugge vs Gent Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:30

Cercle Brugge

PPG 0.88 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLL ·

UPCOMING

Gent

PPG 1.51 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWW ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-19.0%0-26.6%0-33.2%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.2%1-112.0%1-28.7%1-34.2%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.5%2-17.9%2-25.8%2-32.8%2-4+1.4%3 3-02.4%3-13.5%3-22.5%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.5%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.9% 36.4% 2.75 -4.0%

Draw 23.6% 30.3% 3.30 -13.3%

Away win 41.6% 43.5% 2.30 -4.3%

Over 2.5 53.8% 58.8% 1.70 -8.5%

Over 3.5 31.7% 38.2% 2.62 -17.0%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 38.6% 43.7% 2.29 -11.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 48.3% 2.07 -12.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 27 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 56%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 41%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob55.9%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.5 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.0%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–1 9.0%

#5 0–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cercle Brugge1.3

Gent1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

CERCLE BRUGGE · PPG 0.88

GENT · PPG 1.51

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cercle Brugge (H) 34.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -4.0%

Draw 23.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -13.3%

Gent (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cercle Brugge face Gent in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cercle Brugge a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Gent 42%, so Gent are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Cercle Brugge and 1.5 for Gent (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cercle Brugge are averaging 0.88 points per game versus 1.51 for Gent.

Cercle Brugge vs Gent Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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