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Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 18:45

Lommel United

PPG 1.50 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWW ·

UPCOMING

Club Brugge KV

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-19.2%0-26.2%0-32.8%0-4+1.3%1 1-09.1%1-112.3%1-28.3%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.1%2-18.2%2-25.6%2-32.5%2-4+1.1%3 3-02.7%3-13.7%3-22.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.7%4+-21.1%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.5% 10.5% 9.50 +265.8%

Draw 26.0% 16.7% 6.00 +33.6%

Away win 35.4% 80.0% 1.25 -55.8%

Over 2.5 53.8% 76.9% 1.30 -30.1%

Over 3.5 31.6% 55.6% 1.80 -43.1%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 39.3% 28.6% 3.50 +37.5%

Away O1.5 42.2% 82.0% 1.22 -48.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob54.6%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 2–1 8.2%

#3 1–2 8.3%

#4 1–0 9.1%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lommel United1.3

Club Brugge KV1.3

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LOMMEL UNITED · PPG 1.50

CLUB BRUGGE KV · PPG 1.69

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lommel United (H) 38.5%

ODDS 9.50 · IMPLIED 10.5% EV +265.8%

Draw 26.0%

ODDS 6.00 · IMPLIED 16.7% EV +33.6%

Club Brugge KV (A) 35.4%

ODDS 1.25 · IMPLIED 80.0% EV -55.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lommel United face Club Brugge KV in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lommel United a 39% chance, the draw 26% and Club Brugge KV 35%, so Lommel United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lommel United and 1.3 for Club Brugge KV (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lommel United are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 1.69 for Club Brugge KV. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +100.1%.

Lommel United vs Club Brugge KV Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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