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FC Salzburg W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Championship Group - 19 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

FC Salzburg W

PPG 1.33 · HOME

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Sturm Graz W

PPG 2.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-15.6%0-27.7%0-37.1%0-4+9.5%1 1-02.3%1-16.4%1-28.8%1-38.1%1-4+10.8%2 2-01.3%2-13.7%2-25.0%2-34.6%2-4+6.2%3 3-00.5%3-11.4%3-21.9%3-31.8%3-4+2.3%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.5%4+-20.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.9%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 15.6% — — —

Away win 71.1% — — —

Over 2.5 74.5% — — —

Over 3.5 54.4% — — —

BTTS 63.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 21 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 62%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 48%

Score Hit 48%

ROI 3.3%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 80%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)2.7 BTTS prob63.7%

A 71% / xG 1.1-2.7 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.8%

#2 1–3 8.1%

#3 0–2 7.7%

#4 0–3 7.1%

#5 1–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Salzburg W1.1

Sturm Graz W2.7

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.5% · O3.5 PROB 54.4%

Form & verdict PPG

FC SALZBURG W · PPG 1.33

STURM GRAZ W · PPG 2.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs Home AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

FC Salzburg W (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 15.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Sturm Graz W (A) 71.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Salzburg W face Sturm Graz W in Austria - Frauenliga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Salzburg W a 13% chance, the draw 16% and Sturm Graz W 71%, so Sturm Graz W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for FC Salzburg W and 2.7 for Sturm Graz W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 75% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Salzburg W are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 2.33 for Sturm Graz W. This match finished 0-1.

FC Salzburg W vs Sturm Graz W Prediction— Austria - Frauenliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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