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Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Regular Season - 32 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 12:00

Alaves

PPG 1.40 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Mallorca

PPG 0.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.0% vs bookmaker-implied 46.7% — a clear edge.

+24.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.2%0-15.4%0-22.8%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.0%1-110.4%1-25.4%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.9%2-25.1%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-06.1%3-16.4%3-23.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-04.6%4+-14.7%4+-22.4%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.0% 46.7% 2.14 +24.1%

Draw 22.0% 31.3% 3.20 -29.6%

Away win 20.0% 29.0% 3.45 -31.0%

Over 2.5 56.7% 50.0% 2.00 +13.4%

Over 3.5 34.3% 29.0% 3.45 +18.3%

BTTS 55.1% 57.1% 1.75 -3.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 70 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 51%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 56%

ROI 15.1%

Bet Hit 69%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 50%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.1%

H 58% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.4%

#2 1–0 10.0%

#3 2–1✓ 9.9%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Alaves1.9

Mallorca1.0

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.7% · O3.5 PROB 34.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ALAVES · PPG 1.40

MALLORCA · PPG 0.40

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

95%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: AVERAGE form (1.40) vs P(Home)=58.0%

Win probability 1X2

Alaves (H) 58.0%

ODDS 2.14 · IMPLIED 46.7% EV +24.1%

Draw 22.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -29.6%

Mallorca (A) 20.0%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -31.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Alaves face Mallorca in Spain - La Liga on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Alaves a 58% chance, the draw 22% and Mallorca 20%, so Alaves are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Alaves and 1.0 for Mallorca (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Alaves are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.40 for Mallorca. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +24.1%. This match finished 2-1.

Alaves vs Mallorca Prediction— Spain - La Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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