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Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 14:00

Elva

PPG 1.69 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWDW

UPCOMING

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 80% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.4%0-13.8%0-22.1%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-07.6%1-18.6%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.7%2-19.7%2-25.5%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.5%3-17.4%3-24.1%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-06.3%4+-17.1%4+-24.0%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.3% 78.1% 1.28 -26.7%

Draw 21.3% 18.2% 5.50 +10.3%

Away win 21.4% 15.4% 6.50 +23.5%

Over 2.5 61.7% 76.9% 1.30 -19.8%

Over 3.5 40.2% 56.8% 1.76 -29.3%

BTTS 57.3% 67.6% 1.48 -15.2%

Home O1.5 66.3% 85.5% 1.17 -22.4%

Away O1.5 33.2% 37.0% 2.70 -10.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob57.3%

H 57% / xG 2.3-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 57%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.6%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 3–1 7.4%

#5 1–2 4.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elva2.3

Nõmme Kalju II1.1

COMBINED 3.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

ELVA · PPG 1.69

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 0.83

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

80%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.15 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Elva (H) 57.3%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -26.7%

Draw 21.3%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +10.3%

Nõmme Kalju II (A) 21.4%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +23.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Elva face Nõmme Kalju II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elva a 57% chance, the draw 21% and Nõmme Kalju II 21%, so Elva are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.3 for Elva and 1.1 for Nõmme Kalju II (3.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 57% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elva are averaging 1.69 points per game versus 0.83 for Nõmme Kalju II.

Elva vs Nõmme Kalju II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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