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Maardu vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 27 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:30

Maardu

PPG 1.77 · HOME

LAST 5

LWLWW

UPCOMING

Nõmme United II

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 80% chance

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 85.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.6%0-23.1%0-31.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-04.6%1-17.8%1-26.6%1-33.7%1-4+2.3%2 2-04.9%2-18.4%2-27.1%2-34.0%2-4+2.5%3 3-03.5%3-16.0%3-25.1%3-32.9%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-15.3%4+-24.5%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.1% 49.5% 2.02 +1.2%

Draw 21.2% 23.8% 4.20 -6.6%

Away win 28.8% 36.5% 2.74 -12.7%

Over 2.5 68.4% 85.5% 1.17 -20.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 66.7% 1.50 -32.5%

BTTS 63.5% 83.3% 1.20 -23.8%

Home O1.5 62.1% 73.5% 1.36 -15.5%

Away O1.5 47.9% 65.4% 1.53 -26.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.5%

H 50% / xG 2.2-1.7 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.4%

#2 1–1 7.8%

#3 2–2 7.1%

#4 1–2 6.6%

#5 3–1 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Maardu2.2

Nõmme United II1.7

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

MAARDU · PPG 1.77

NÕMME UNITED II · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

80%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.46 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Maardu (H) 50.1%

ODDS 2.02 · IMPLIED 49.5% EV +1.2%

Draw 21.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.6%

Nõmme United II (A) 28.8%

ODDS 2.74 · IMPLIED 36.5% EV -12.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Maardu face Nõmme United II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Maardu a 50% chance, the draw 21% and Nõmme United II 29%, so Maardu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Maardu and 1.7 for Nõmme United II (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Maardu are averaging 1.77 points per game versus 0.92 for Nõmme United II.

Maardu vs Nõmme United II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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