Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / FCI Levadia II vs Flora II

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 27 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

FCI Levadia II

PPG 1.57 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWL

UPCOMING

Flora II

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWDW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.5% vs bookmaker-implied 78.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.5%0-24.0%0-33.0%0-4+3.0%1 1-02.9%1-16.6%1-27.5%1-35.8%1-4+5.7%2 2-02.7%2-16.3%2-27.2%2-35.5%2-4+5.4%3 3-01.7%3-14.0%3-24.5%3-33.5%3-4+3.4%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.9%4+-23.3%4+-32.5%4+-4+2.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 40.0% 2.50 -22.8%

Draw 20.5% 23.8% 4.20 -8.3%

Away win 48.6% 47.6% 2.10 +2.1%

Over 2.5 72.5% 78.1% 1.28 -7.2%

Over 3.5 50.8% 62.1% 1.61 -18.2%

BTTS 67.8% 80.0% 1.25 -15.3%

Home O1.5 55.8% 66.7% 1.50 -16.3%

Away O1.5 69.2% 61.3% 1.63 +12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 32 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 63%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 56%

Score Hit 25%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)2.3 BTTS prob67.8%

A 49% / xG 1.9-2.3 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.5%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.2%

#4 2–1 6.3%

#5 1–3 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FCI Levadia II1.9

Flora II2.3

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FCI LEVADIA II · PPG 1.57

FLORA II · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.39 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FCI Levadia II (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -22.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -8.3%

Flora II (A) 48.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +2.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

FCI Levadia II face Flora II in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FCI Levadia II a 31% chance, the draw 21% and Flora II 49%, so Flora II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for FCI Levadia II and 2.3 for Flora II (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FCI Levadia II are averaging 1.57 points per game versus 1.46 for Flora II. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.8%.

FCI Levadia II vs Flora II Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions