Today / Estonia - Esiliiga A / Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco

Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 12:00

Tallinna Kalev

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWLL

UPCOMING

Tartu Welco

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 78% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 72.6% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.9%0-24.9%0-34.1%0-4+4.7%1 1-02.6%1-16.5%1-28.1%1-36.8%1-4+7.8%2 2-02.1%2-15.3%2-26.7%2-35.6%2-4+6.4%3 3-01.2%3-12.9%3-23.7%3-33.1%3-4+3.5%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-11.7%4+-22.2%4+-31.8%4+-4+2.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.1% 23.8% 4.20 +5.8%

Draw 18.4% 22.2% 4.50 -10.3%

Away win 55.5% 65.4% 1.53 -15.1%

Over 2.5 72.6% 80.0% 1.25 -9.3%

Over 3.5 50.9% 61.0% 1.64 -16.5%

BTTS 67.8% 75.8% 1.32 -10.5%

Home O1.5 48.3% 47.6% 2.10 +1.4%

Away O1.5 69.2% 82.0% 1.22 -15.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 24%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)2.5 BTTS prob67.8%

A 56% / xG 1.6-2.5 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 8.1%

#2 1–3 6.8%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 2–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tallinna Kalev1.6

Tartu Welco2.5

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 50.9%

Form & verdict PPG

TALLINNA KALEV · PPG 1.62

TARTU WELCO · PPG 2.08

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

78%

DANGER

xG gap -0.86 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Tallinna Kalev (H) 26.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV +5.8%

Draw 18.4%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV -10.3%

Tartu Welco (A) 55.5%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -15.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tallinna Kalev face Tartu Welco in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tallinna Kalev a 26% chance, the draw 18% and Tartu Welco 56%, so Tartu Welco are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Tallinna Kalev and 2.5 for Tartu Welco (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tallinna Kalev are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 2.08 for Tartu Welco. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +1.8%.

Tallinna Kalev vs Tartu Welco Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

More Estonia - Esiliiga A Predictions