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Arka Gdynia vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Matchday 7 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:30

Arka Gdynia

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLD

UPCOMING

ŁKS Łódź

PPG 1.23 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 57% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-18.4%0-24.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-011.3%1-112.4%1-26.8%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.3%2-19.1%2-25.0%2-31.8%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.1%3-14.5%3-22.4%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.1%4+-12.3%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.6% 43.5% 2.30 +2.6%

Draw 25.7% 32.3% 3.10 -12.2%

Away win 29.7% 35.7% 2.80 -10.1%

Over 2.5 51.0% 51.3% 1.95 -0.5%

Over 3.5 31.3% 29.4% 3.40 +6.4%

BTTS 52.9% 58.8% 1.70 -10.1%

Home O1.5 39.9% 44.4% 2.25 -10.2%

Away O1.5 33.1% 38.2% 2.62 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 68 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 53%

ROI -10.9%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.9%

H 45% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 1–0 11.3%

#3 2–1 9.1%

#4 2–0 8.3%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arka Gdynia1.5

ŁKS Łódź1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ARKA GDYNIA · PPG 1.81

ŁKS ŁÓDŹ · PPG 1.23

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Arka Gdynia (H) 44.6%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +2.6%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -12.2%

ŁKS Łódź (A) 29.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -10.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arka Gdynia face ŁKS Łódź in Poland - I Liga on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arka Gdynia a 45% chance, the draw 26% and ŁKS Łódź 30%, so Arka Gdynia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Arka Gdynia and 1.1 for ŁKS Łódź (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arka Gdynia are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.23 for ŁKS Łódź. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.4%.

Arka Gdynia vs ŁKS Łódź Prediction— Poland - I Liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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