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Honka vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 12:00

Honka

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

HJS Akatemia

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 78% chance

xG gap +1.99 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.50 - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-12.0%0-20.9%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-06.1%1-15.7%1-22.7%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-09.0%2-18.4%2-24.0%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.8%3-18.2%3-23.9%3-31.2%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-013.2%4+-112.4%4+-25.8%4+-31.8%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 72.0% 84.7% 1.18 -15.0%

Draw 16.3% 14.3% 7.00 +8.5%

Away win 11.7% 12.5% 8.00 -3.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 80.0% 1.25 -14.5%

Over 3.5 45.0% 61.7% 1.62 -27.1%

BTTS 54.9% 61.7% 1.62 -11.1%

Home O1.5 77.9% — — —

Away O1.5 26.1% 28.1% 3.56 -4.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 59 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 66%

O2.5 64%

BTTS 64%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 72%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.9%

H 72% / xG 2.9-0.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 9.0%

#2 3–0 8.8%

#3 2–1 8.4%

#4 3–1 8.2%

#5 1–1 5.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Honka2.9

HJS Akatemia0.9

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

HONKA · PPG 2.20

HJS AKATEMIA · PPG 1.50

✓ SOLID - Home form strong, but alternative markets offers value

Chance this pick lands

78%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.99 for Home, form 2.20 vs 1.50 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Honka (H) 72.0%

ODDS 1.18 · IMPLIED 84.7% EV -15.0%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +8.5%

HJS Akatemia (A) 11.7%

ODDS 8.00 · IMPLIED 12.5% EV -3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Honka face HJS Akatemia in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Honka a 72% chance, the draw 16% and HJS Akatemia 12%, so Honka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.9 for Honka and 0.9 for HJS Akatemia (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Honka are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.50 for HJS Akatemia. The best value bet our model finds is D/BTTS, with an expected value of +7.8%.

Honka vs HJS Akatemia Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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