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NJS vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Group B ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

NJS

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Musa

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-16.4%0-25.4%0-33.0%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.0%1-110.1%1-28.6%1-34.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.8%2-18.0%2-26.8%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.5%3-14.2%3-23.6%3-32.0%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.4%4+-22.0%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 34.4% 38.5% 2.60 -10.6%

Draw 22.7% 25.0% 4.00 -5.5%

Away win 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

Over 2.5 64.2% 73.5% 1.36 -12.7%

Over 3.5 43.3% 54.6% 1.83 -20.8%

BTTS 63.4% 73.5% 1.36 -13.8%

Home O1.5 47.4% 54.6% 1.83 -13.3%

Away O1.5 47.9% 61.7% 1.62 -22.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 57 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 68%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 47%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.4%

A 43% / xG 1.6-1.7 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–2 5.4%

#5 2–2 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NJS1.6

Musa1.7

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 64.2% · O3.5 PROB 43.3%

Form & verdict PPG

NJS · PPG 0.00

MUSA · PPG 0.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NJS (H) 34.4%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -10.6%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -5.5%

Musa (A) 43.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -9.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

NJS face Musa in Finland - Kakkonen Group B on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NJS a 34% chance, the draw 23% and Musa 43%, so Musa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for NJS and 1.7 for Musa (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NJS are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 0.78 for Musa.

NJS vs Musa Prediction— Finland - Kakkonen Group B

Match Preview & Prediction

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