Today / Denmark - 2. Division / Thisted FC vs Nykobing FC

Thisted FC vs Nykobing FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Thisted FC

PPG 1.02 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLD

UPCOMING

Nykobing FC

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 61% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-18.2%0-27.9%0-35.0%0-4+3.8%1 1-05.2%1-110.1%1-29.7%1-36.2%1-4+4.6%2 2-03.2%2-16.2%2-26.0%2-33.8%2-4+2.9%3 3-01.3%3-12.6%3-22.5%3-31.6%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-11.0%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 30.3% 3.30 -12.5%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 53.7% 54.1% 1.85 -0.7%

Over 2.5 63.0% 59.9% 1.67 +5.2%

Over 3.5 40.2% 38.2% 2.62 +5.3%

BTTS 61.5% 63.7% 1.57 -3.4%

Home O1.5 34.2% 38.2% 2.62 -10.4%

Away O1.5 58.3% 55.6% 1.80 +4.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 14 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 36%

O2.5 36%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob61.5%

A 54% / xG 1.2-1.9 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 9.7%

#3 0–2 7.9%

#4 0–1 8.2%

#5 2–1 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Thisted FC1.2

Nykobing FC1.9

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

THISTED FC · PPG 1.02

NYKOBING FC · PPG 1.93

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

61%

DANGER

xG gap -0.69 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Thisted FC (H) 24.0%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -12.5%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

Nykobing FC (A) 53.7%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Thisted FC face Nykobing FC in Denmark - 2. Division on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Thisted FC a 24% chance, the draw 22% and Nykobing FC 54%, so Nykobing FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Thisted FC and 1.9 for Nykobing FC (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Thisted FC are averaging 1.02 points per game versus 1.93 for Nykobing FC. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +17.2%.

Thisted FC vs Nykobing FC Prediction— Denmark - 2. Division

Match Preview & Prediction

More Denmark - 2. Division Predictions