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Astrio vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Västra Götaland · Matchday 20 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 11:00

Astrio

PPG 0.44 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Åstorp

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 65% chance

Combined xG of 2.7 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 53.8% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-111.5%0-29.5%0-35.3%0-4+3.2%1 1-07.0%1-111.6%1-29.6%1-35.3%1-4+3.2%2 2-03.6%2-15.9%2-24.9%2-32.7%2-4+1.6%3 3-01.2%3-12.0%3-21.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.6%4+-20.5%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 24.0% 28.6% 3.50 -9.6%

Draw 24.6% 24.4% 4.10 +0.5%

Away win 51.4% 58.8% 1.70 -12.6%

Over 2.5 53.8% 69.4% 1.44 -22.5%

Over 3.5 31.6% 50.0% 2.00 -36.8%

BTTS 52.9% 69.4% 1.44 -23.8%

Home O1.5 30.8% 43.5% 2.30 -29.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 68.5% 1.46 -30.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 66 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 65%

Score Hit 46%

ROI 47.0%

Bet Hit 83%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob52.9%

A 51% / xG 1.0-1.7 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.6%

#4 0–2 9.5%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Astrio1.0

Åstorp1.7

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ASTRIO · PPG 0.44

ÅSTORP · PPG 1.10

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.64 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Astrio (H) 24.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -9.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV +0.5%

Åstorp (A) 51.4%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -12.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Astrio face Åstorp in Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Astrio a 24% chance, the draw 25% and Åstorp 51%, so Åstorp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Astrio and 1.7 for Åstorp (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Astrio are averaging 0.44 points per game versus 1.10 for Åstorp.

Astrio vs Åstorp Prediction— Sweden - Division 2 - Västra Götaland

Match Preview & Prediction

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