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Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Kawasaki Frontale

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DDDWL

UPCOMING

Shimizu S-pulse

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.2%0-24.7%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.5%1-112.7%1-26.5%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-18.8%2-24.5%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.0%3-14.1%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.9%4+-21.0%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.9% 54.1% 1.85 -15.1%

Draw 26.1% 28.6% 3.50 -5.2%

Away win 28.0% 26.3% 3.80 +3.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 61.7% 1.62 -18.2%

Over 3.5 28.7% 40.0% 2.50 -17.0%

BTTS 52.9% 63.7% 1.57 -17.0%

Home O1.5 39.6% 57.8% 1.73 -31.5%

Away O1.5 31.8% 38.2% 2.62 -16.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 46% / xG 1.4-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–1 8.8%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kawasaki Frontale1.4

Shimizu S-pulse1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KAWASAKI FRONTALE · PPG 1.60

SHIMIZU S-PULSE · PPG 1.27

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

61%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kawasaki Frontale (H) 45.9%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -15.1%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.2%

Shimizu S-pulse (A) 28.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV +3.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kawasaki Frontale face Shimizu S-pulse in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kawasaki Frontale a 46% chance, the draw 26% and Shimizu S-pulse 28%, so Kawasaki Frontale are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Kawasaki Frontale and 1.0 for Shimizu S-pulse (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kawasaki Frontale are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.27 for Shimizu S-pulse. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +5.5%.

Kawasaki Frontale vs Shimizu S-pulse Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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