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Vissel Kobe vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Vissel Kobe

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWW

UPCOMING

V-varen Nagasaki

PPG 0.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

Home 58% chance

Model probability 54.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.2%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.0%1-111.0%1-25.0%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.8%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.4%3-15.8%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.3%4+-13.9%4+-21.8%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.5% 59.9% 1.67 -9.0%

Draw 23.8% 28.6% 3.50 -10.0%

Away win 21.7% 20.0% 5.00 +5.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 48.8% 2.05 +10.3%

Over 3.5 31.7% 26.7% 3.75 +18.9%

BTTS 52.9% 52.4% 1.91 +1.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 54.6% 1.83 -8.7%

Away O1.5 26.1% 23.1% 4.33 +7.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 55% / xG 1.8-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.0%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 1–0 12.0%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vissel Kobe1.8

V-varen Nagasaki0.9

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VISSEL KOBE · PPG 2.01

V-VAREN NAGASAKI · PPG 0.93

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

58%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.87 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Vissel Kobe (H) 54.5%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -9.0%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -10.0%

V-varen Nagasaki (A) 21.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +5.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Vissel Kobe face V-varen Nagasaki in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vissel Kobe a 55% chance, the draw 24% and V-varen Nagasaki 22%, so Vissel Kobe are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Vissel Kobe and 0.9 for V-varen Nagasaki (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vissel Kobe are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 0.93 for V-varen Nagasaki. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +24.6%.

Vissel Kobe vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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