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Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 10:00

Cerezo Osaka

PPG 2.02 · HOME

LAST 5

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UPCOMING

Tokyo Verdy

PPG 1.09 · AWAY

LAST 5

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// Model verdict

Home 55% chance

Model probability 52.5% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.2%0-18.1%0-23.2%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.2%1-112.1%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-19.0%2-23.6%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.6%3-14.4%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.5% 55.6% 1.80 -5.5%

Draw 26.1% 30.3% 3.30 -8.3%

Away win 21.4% 23.8% 4.20 -6.1%

Over 2.5 44.5% 48.8% 2.05 -8.8%

Over 3.5 25.5% 26.7% 3.75 -2.6%

BTTS 48.0% 52.4% 1.91 -8.3%

Home O1.5 39.9% 52.4% 1.91 -23.8%

Away O1.5 23.3% 26.7% 3.75 -7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 52% / xG 1.5-0.8 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.2%

#2 1–1 12.1%

#3 2–0 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.2%

#5 2–1 9.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerezo Osaka1.5

Tokyo Verdy0.8

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.5% · O3.5 PROB 25.5%

Form & verdict PPG

CEREZO OSAKA · PPG 2.02

TOKYO VERDY · PPG 1.09

⚠ NO VALUE FOUND - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.69 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cerezo Osaka (H) 52.5%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -5.5%

Draw 26.1%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.3%

Tokyo Verdy (A) 21.4%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerezo Osaka face Tokyo Verdy in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerezo Osaka a 53% chance, the draw 26% and Tokyo Verdy 21%, so Cerezo Osaka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Cerezo Osaka and 0.8 for Tokyo Verdy (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerezo Osaka are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.09 for Tokyo Verdy. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +3.4%.

Cerezo Osaka vs Tokyo Verdy Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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