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Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Nagoya Grampus

PPG 1.81 · HOME

LAST 5

LLWWL

UPCOMING

Machida Zelvia

PPG 1.93 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDW

// Model verdict

BTTS 60% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+2.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.8%0-18.6%0-27.7%0-34.6%0-4+3.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.7%1-29.6%1-35.7%1-4+3.9%2 2-03.7%2-16.7%2-26.0%2-33.6%2-4+2.4%3 3-01.5%3-12.8%3-22.5%3-31.5%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-11.1%4+-21.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 32.3% 3.10 -5.5%

Draw 23.5% 30.8% 3.25 -14.2%

Away win 47.2% 46.5% 2.15 +1.5%

Over 2.5 59.7% 54.1% 1.85 +10.4%

Over 3.5 36.8% 33.3% 3.00 +10.4%

BTTS 61.5% 59.9% 1.67 +2.7%

Home O1.5 35.6% 38.2% 2.62 -6.7%

Away O1.5 47.9% 50.0% 2.00 -4.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob61.5%

A 47% / xG 1.2-1.8 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 9.6%

#3 2–1 6.7%

#4 0–2 7.7%

#5 0–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nagoya Grampus1.2

Machida Zelvia1.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.7% · O3.5 PROB 36.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NAGOYA GRAMPUS · PPG 1.81

MACHIDA ZELVIA · PPG 1.93

⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team

Chance this pick lands

60%

DANGER

xG gap -0.55 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nagoya Grampus (H) 29.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -5.5%

Draw 23.5%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.2%

Machida Zelvia (A) 47.2%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV +1.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nagoya Grampus face Machida Zelvia in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nagoya Grampus a 29% chance, the draw 24% and Machida Zelvia 47%, so Machida Zelvia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Nagoya Grampus and 1.8 for Machida Zelvia (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nagoya Grampus are averaging 1.81 points per game versus 1.93 for Machida Zelvia. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +28.9%.

Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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