Today / Japan - J1 League / Kashima vs Urawa

Kashima vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Kashima

PPG 2.53 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

UPCOMING

Urawa

PPG 1.27 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 59% chance

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+23.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-13.0%0-22.1%0-31.0%0-4+0.5%1 1-05.2%1-17.3%1-25.1%1-32.4%1-4+1.2%2 2-06.3%2-18.9%2-26.3%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-05.2%3-17.3%3-25.1%3-32.4%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-05.7%4+-18.0%4+-25.6%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.8% 54.1% 1.85 +1.4%

Draw 20.1% 28.6% 3.50 -17.8%

Away win 25.0% 26.3% 3.80 -3.0%

Over 2.5 68.4% 55.6% 1.80 +23.1%

Over 3.5 49.4% 36.4% 2.75 +35.9%

BTTS 63.5% 58.8% 1.70 +8.0%

Home O1.5 66.3% 55.6% 1.80 +19.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 30.8% 3.25 +37.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 31 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 45%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 61%

Score Hit 52%

ROI 10.3%

Bet Hit 56%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 67%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.5%

H 55% / xG 2.4-1.4 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.9%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.3%

#4 1–2 5.1%

#5 2–2 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kashima2.4

Urawa1.4

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KASHIMA · PPG 2.53

URAWA · PPG 1.27

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

59%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kashima (H) 54.8%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV +1.4%

Draw 20.1%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -17.8%

Urawa (A) 25.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -3.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kashima face Urawa in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kashima a 55% chance, the draw 20% and Urawa 25%, so Kashima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kashima and 1.4 for Urawa (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kashima are averaging 2.53 points per game versus 1.27 for Urawa. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +55.0%.

Kashima vs Urawa Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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