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Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Matchday 6 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 09:00

Fagiano Okayama

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

UPCOMING

Sanfrecce Hiroshima

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWDDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.1%0-28.6%0-33.8%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.9%1-113.0%1-28.5%1-33.7%1-4+1.6%2 2-04.9%2-16.5%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.6%3-12.1%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +3.5%

Draw 27.4% 29.4% 3.40 -4.1%

Away win 43.2% 52.4% 1.91 -17.5%

Over 2.5 46.5% 57.1% 1.75 -18.6%

Over 3.5 26.2% 36.4% 2.75 -16.8%

BTTS 49.9% 60.6% 1.65 -17.7%

Home O1.5 30.8% 33.3% 3.00 -7.6%

Away O1.5 41.1% 55.6% 1.80 -26.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 30 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 47%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 16.8%

Bet Hit 59%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob49.9%

A 43% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 0–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fagiano Okayama1.0

Sanfrecce Hiroshima1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.5% · O3.5 PROB 26.2%

Form & verdict PPG

FAGIANO OKAYAMA · PPG 1.60

SANFRECCE HIROSHIMA · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

50%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.32, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fagiano Okayama (H) 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.5%

Draw 27.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.1%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima (A) 43.2%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -17.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fagiano Okayama face Sanfrecce Hiroshima in Japan - J1 League on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fagiano Okayama a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Sanfrecce Hiroshima 43%, so Sanfrecce Hiroshima are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Fagiano Okayama and 1.3 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fagiano Okayama are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.69 for Sanfrecce Hiroshima. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +0.1%.

Fagiano Okayama vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima Prediction— Japan - J1 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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