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Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Willem II

PPG 1.21 · HOME

LAST 5

LLD ··

UPCOMING

Excelsior

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a clear edge.

+12.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.6%0-15.6%0-26.0%0-34.2%0-4+3.7%1 1-04.0%1-18.5%1-29.0%1-36.4%1-4+5.6%2 2-03.0%2-16.4%2-26.8%2-34.8%2-4+4.2%3 3-01.5%3-13.2%3-23.4%3-32.4%3-4+2.1%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.7%4+-21.8%4+-31.3%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.0% 36.0% 2.78 -15.0%

Draw 21.0% 27.4% 3.65 -14.0%

Away win 52.0% 43.9% 2.28 +18.6%

Over 2.5 68.4% 60.6% 1.65 +12.9%

Over 3.5 45.0% 37.7% 2.65 +19.3%

BTTS 63.5% 64.5% 1.55 -1.6%

Home O1.5 39.9% 45.5% 2.20 -12.2%

Away O1.5 58.6% 51.3% 1.95 +14.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 61%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob63.5%

A 52% / xG 1.5-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 9.0%

#2 1–1 8.5%

#3 2–1 6.4%

#4 1–3 6.4%

#5 0–2 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Willem II1.5

Excelsior2.1

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

WILLEM II · PPG 1.21

EXCELSIOR · PPG 1.58

⚠ CAUTION - Home form weak, consider away

65%

DANGER

xG gap -0.62 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Willem II (H) 27.0%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV -15.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -14.0%

Excelsior (A) 52.0%

ODDS 2.28 · IMPLIED 43.9% EV +18.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Willem II face Excelsior in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Willem II a 27% chance, the draw 21% and Excelsior 52%, so Excelsior are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Willem II and 2.1 for Excelsior (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Willem II are averaging 1.21 points per game versus 1.58 for Excelsior. The best value bet our model finds is TT_AwayO25, with an expected value of +43.2%.

Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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