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NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:30

NEC Nijmegen

PPG 1.46 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Feyenoord

PPG 2.03 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWD ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.6 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.8%0-15.3%0-25.0%0-33.2%0-4+2.3%1 1-04.7%1-19.0%1-28.5%1-35.3%1-4+3.9%2 2-04.0%2-17.5%2-27.1%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.2%3-14.2%3-24.0%3-32.5%3-4+1.8%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-12.6%4+-22.4%4+-31.5%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.3% 36.0% 2.78 +3.7%

Draw 21.1% 23.8% 4.20 -6.8%

Away win 41.6% 47.2% 2.12 -11.8%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.2% 1.33 -9.0%

Over 3.5 45.0% 54.6% 1.83 -17.6%

BTTS 63.5% 76.9% 1.30 -17.4%

Home O1.5 49.8% 56.5% 1.77 -11.8%

Away O1.5 58.3% 63.7% 1.57 -8.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 53 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 70%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 40%

ROI -2.1%

Bet Hit 63%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

A 42% / xG 1.7-1.9 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.0%

#2 2–1 7.5%

#3 1–2 8.5%

#4 2–2 7.1%

#5 1–3 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

NEC Nijmegen1.7

Feyenoord1.9

COMBINED 3.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 45.0%

Form & verdict PPG

NEC NIJMEGEN · PPG 1.46

FEYENOORD · PPG 2.03

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

NEC Nijmegen (H) 37.3%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +3.7%

Draw 21.1%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.8%

Feyenoord (A) 41.6%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

NEC Nijmegen face Feyenoord in Netherlands - Eredivisie on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives NEC Nijmegen a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Feyenoord 42%, so Feyenoord are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.9 for Feyenoord (3.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, NEC Nijmegen are averaging 1.46 points per game versus 2.03 for Feyenoord.

NEC Nijmegen vs Feyenoord Prediction— Netherlands - Eredivisie

Match Preview & Prediction

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