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Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 16:30

Union St. Gilloise

PPG 2.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDW ··

3 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Anderlecht

PPG 0.98 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 52.6% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.5%0-23.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.4%1-111.3%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.9%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.7%3-15.6%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.6%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.6% 59.9% 1.67 -12.2%

Draw 24.2% 27.8% 3.60 -7.7%

Away win 23.2% 21.7% 4.60 +4.0%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

BTTS 52.7% 58.8% 1.70 -10.4%

Home O1.5 48.9% 57.8% 1.73 -15.4%

Away O1.5 29.3% 29.4% 3.40 -0.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 33%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.3%

#2 2–0 9.9%

#3 2–1 9.8%

#4 1–0 11.4%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Union St. Gilloise1.7

Anderlecht1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

UNION ST. GILLOISE · PPG 2.12

ANDERLECHT · PPG 0.98

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Union St. Gilloise (H) 52.6%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -12.2%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.7%

Anderlecht (A) 23.2%

ODDS 4.60 · IMPLIED 21.7% EV +4.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Union St. Gilloise face Anderlecht in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Union St. Gilloise a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Anderlecht 23%, so Union St. Gilloise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Union St. Gilloise and 1.0 for Anderlecht (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Union St. Gilloise are averaging 2.12 points per game versus 0.98 for Anderlecht. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.8%. This match finished 3-0.

Union St. Gilloise vs Anderlecht Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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