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Gent vs Club Brugge KV Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 11:30

Gent

PPG 1.74 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Club Brugge KV

PPG 1.97 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.9%0-19.8%0-27.0%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-08.6%1-112.3%1-28.7%1-34.1%1-4+2.0%2 2-05.4%2-17.7%2-25.5%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.3%3-13.2%3-22.3%3-31.1%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.3%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.8% 22.7% 4.40 +39.9%

Draw 26.3% 26.3% 3.80 -0.0%

Away win 41.9% 59.9% 1.67 -30.0%

Over 2.5 51.3% 59.9% 1.67 -14.3%

Over 3.5 30.8% 38.2% 2.62 -19.3%

BTTS 54.3% 63.7% 1.57 -14.8%

Home O1.5 36.2% 33.3% 3.00 +8.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 63.7% 1.57 -35.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 75%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 38%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob54.3%

A 42% / xG 1.3-1.4 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 0–1 9.8%

#4 2–1✓ 7.7%

#5 0–0 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Gent1.3

Club Brugge KV1.4

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.3% · O3.5 PROB 30.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GENT · PPG 1.74

CLUB BRUGGE KV · PPG 1.97

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Gent (H) 31.8%

ODDS 4.40 · IMPLIED 22.7% EV +39.9%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -0.0%

Club Brugge KV (A) 41.9%

ODDS 1.67 · IMPLIED 59.9% EV -30.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Gent face Club Brugge KV in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Gent a 32% chance, the draw 26% and Club Brugge KV 42%, so Club Brugge KV are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Gent and 1.4 for Club Brugge KV (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Gent are averaging 1.74 points per game versus 1.97 for Club Brugge KV. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +41.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Gent vs Club Brugge KV Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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