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Antwerp vs St. Truiden Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Antwerp

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDL ·

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

St. Truiden

PPG 1.42 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDW ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 62.4% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-15.7%0-24.0%0-31.8%0-4+0.9%1 1-07.4%1-110.3%1-27.2%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.7%2-19.3%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-04.0%3-15.6%3-23.9%3-31.8%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.7%4+-13.8%4+-22.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 41.7% 2.40 +12.8%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -14.4%

Away win 29.6% 36.4% 2.75 -11.2%

Over 2.5 62.4% 57.1% 1.75 +9.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 36.4% 2.75 +8.1%

BTTS 61.9% 61.7% 1.62 +0.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 45.5% 2.20 +7.6%

Away O1.5 40.9% 42.0% 2.38 -2.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob61.9%

H 47% / xG 1.8-1.4 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 7.2%

#4 2–0 6.7%

#5 1–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Antwerp1.8

St. Truiden1.4

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

ANTWERP · PPG 1.60

ST. TRUIDEN · PPG 1.42

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.41 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Antwerp (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +12.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -14.4%

St. Truiden (A) 29.6%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -11.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Antwerp face St. Truiden in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Antwerp a 47% chance, the draw 23% and St. Truiden 30%, so Antwerp are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Antwerp and 1.4 for St. Truiden (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Antwerp are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.42 for St. Truiden. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +21.1%. This match finished 1-4.

Antwerp vs St. Truiden Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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