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St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Matchday 3 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:30

St. Truiden

PPG 1.71 · HOME

LAST 5

DDW ··

UPCOMING

Union St. Gilloise

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 61.1% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-18.6%0-26.4%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.9%1-111.7%1-28.7%1-34.3%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.4%2-18.0%2-25.9%2-32.9%2-4+1.5%3 3-02.5%3-13.7%3-22.7%3-31.3%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.7%4+-21.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.0% 27.0% 3.70 +29.5%

Draw 23.7% 29.0% 3.45 -10.9%

Away win 41.3% 51.3% 1.95 -19.5%

Over 2.5 59.6% 56.5% 1.77 +5.5%

Over 3.5 36.4% 34.5% 2.90 +5.6%

BTTS 61.1% 61.7% 1.62 -1.0%

Home O1.5 39.5% 36.4% 2.75 +8.6%

Away O1.5 42.2% 54.1% 1.85 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 23 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 52%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 70%

Score Hit 39%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 44%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob61.1%

A 41% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1 8.0%

#4 0–1 8.6%

#5 0–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

St. Truiden1.4

Union St. Gilloise1.5

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ST. TRUIDEN · PPG 1.71

UNION ST. GILLOISE · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.11 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

St. Truiden (H) 35.0%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +29.5%

Draw 23.7%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -10.9%

Union St. Gilloise (A) 41.3%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -19.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

St. Truiden face Union St. Gilloise in Belgium - Jupiler Pro League on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives St. Truiden a 35% chance, the draw 24% and Union St. Gilloise 41%, so Union St. Gilloise are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for St. Truiden and 1.5 for Union St. Gilloise (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, St. Truiden are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.75 for Union St. Gilloise. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +16.9%.

St. Truiden vs Union St. Gilloise Prediction— Belgium - Jupiler Pro League

Match Preview & Prediction

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