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Brežice vs Dravinja Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 18:00

Brežice

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

Dravinja

PPG 0.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLL ·

// Model verdict

BTTS 61% chance

Model probability 54.6% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.8%0-16.8%0-23.4%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.4%1-111.5%1-25.8%1-31.9%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.6%2-19.7%2-24.9%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.4%3-15.4%3-22.7%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.3%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.0% 41.7% 2.40 +24.8%

Draw 24.0% 29.4% 3.40 -11.0%

Away win 24.0% 40.8% 2.45 -24.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 57.1% 1.75 -5.9%

Over 3.5 31.7% 37.0% 2.70 -14.4%

BTTS 54.6% 63.7% 1.57 -14.3%

Home O1.5 49.9% 44.6% 2.24 +11.8%

Away O1.5 30.9% 46.5% 2.15 -33.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob54.6%

H 52% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 11.4%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 2–0 9.6%

#5 0–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brežice1.7

Dravinja1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BREŽICE · PPG 1.25

DRAVINJA · PPG 0.78

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

61%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brežice (H) 52.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +24.8%

Draw 24.0%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -11.0%

Dravinja (A) 24.0%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -24.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brežice face Dravinja in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brežice a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Dravinja 24%, so Brežice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Brežice and 1.0 for Dravinja (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brežice are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.78 for Dravinja. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +11.8%.

Brežice vs Dravinja Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions