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Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 15:00

Dekani

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Tabor Sežana

PPG 1.94 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.5 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 50.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.9%0-111.5%0-28.4%0-34.1%0-4+2.1%1 1-08.5%1-112.4%1-29.1%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-04.6%2-16.7%2-24.9%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 26.0% 11.8% 8.50 +72.6%

Draw 24.7% 20.0% 5.00 +14.1%

Away win 49.3% 78.7% 1.27 -37.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 60.6% 1.65 -16.5%

Over 3.5 28.7% 41.2% 2.43 -18.2%

BTTS 49.9% 44.1% 2.27 +13.3%

Home O1.5 30.8% 15.9% 6.30 +94.0%

Away O1.5 42.2% 70.4% 1.42 -40.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 3 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob49.9%

A 49% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 51% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.4%

#2 0–1 11.5%

#3 1–2 9.1%

#4 0–2 8.4%

#5 0–0✓ 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dekani1.1

Tabor Sežana1.5

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

DEKANI · PPG 1.51

TABOR SEŽANA · PPG 1.94

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.38 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dekani (H) 26.0%

ODDS 8.50 · IMPLIED 11.8% EV +72.6%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +14.1%

Tabor Sežana (A) 49.3%

ODDS 1.27 · IMPLIED 78.7% EV -37.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dekani face Tabor Sežana in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dekani a 26% chance, the draw 25% and Tabor Sežana 49%, so Tabor Sežana are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Dekani and 1.5 for Tabor Sežana (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dekani are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.94 for Tabor Sežana. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +94.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Dekani vs Tabor Sežana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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