Today / Slovenia - 2. SNL / Krka vs Jesenice

Krka vs Jesenice Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Krka

PPG 0.92 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLL ·

UPCOMING

Jesenice

PPG 1.26 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.7%0-17.9%0-25.4%0-32.5%0-4+1.2%1 1-08.5%1-111.7%1-28.1%1-33.7%1-4+1.7%2 2-06.3%2-18.7%2-26.0%2-32.8%2-4+1.3%3 3-03.1%3-14.3%3-23.0%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.1% 54.1% 1.85 -31.4%

Draw 24.4% 27.8% 3.60 -7.3%

Away win 38.6% 30.3% 3.30 +27.4%

Over 2.5 59.6% 57.1% 1.75 +4.3%

Over 3.5 36.4% 36.5% 2.74 -0.3%

BTTS 59.0% 61.7% 1.62 -4.4%

Home O1.5 39.9% 54.1% 1.85 -26.2%

Away O1.5 42.2% 37.3% 2.68 +13.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob59.0%

A 39% / xG 1.5-1.4 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–2 8.1%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 0–1 7.9%

#5 1–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Krka1.5

Jesenice1.4

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

KRKA · PPG 0.92

JESENICE · PPG 1.26

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.10 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Krka (H) 37.1%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -31.4%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.3%

Jesenice (A) 38.6%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV +27.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Krka face Jesenice in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Krka a 37% chance, the draw 24% and Jesenice 39%, so Jesenice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Krka and 1.4 for Jesenice (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Krka are averaging 0.92 points per game versus 1.26 for Jesenice. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +13.1%.

Krka vs Jesenice Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

More Slovenia - 2. SNL Predictions