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Bilje vs Slovan Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Bilje

PPG 1.49 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLL ·

UPCOMING

Slovan Ljubljana

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 58% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.0%0-24.5%0-32.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-07.0%1-110.3%1-27.7%1-33.8%1-4+2.0%2 2-06.0%2-18.9%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.7%3 3-03.5%3-15.1%3-23.8%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.3%4+-22.4%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 45.5% 2.20 -10.2%

Draw 23.3% 29.4% 3.40 -12.5%

Away win 35.9% 36.4% 2.75 -1.3%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 42.0% 34.7% 2.88 +21.0%

BTTS 63.2% 62.5% 1.60 +1.1%

Home O1.5 49.9% 49.5% 2.02 +0.8%

Away O1.5 42.2% 43.5% 2.30 -2.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.2%

H 41% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 7.7%

#3 2–1 8.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bilje1.7

Slovan Ljubljana1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 42.0%

Form & verdict PPG

BILJE · PPG 1.49

SLOVAN LJUBLJANA · PPG 1.18

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

58%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.24 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bilje (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.20 · IMPLIED 45.5% EV -10.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.5%

Slovan Ljubljana (A) 35.9%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -1.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bilje face Slovan Ljubljana in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bilje a 41% chance, the draw 23% and Slovan Ljubljana 36%, so Bilje are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Bilje and 1.5 for Slovan Ljubljana (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bilje are averaging 1.49 points per game versus 1.18 for Slovan Ljubljana. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.0%.

Bilje vs Slovan Ljubljana Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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