Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Magni vs Kári

Magni vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Magni

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWL

UPCOMING

Kári

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWDWW

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 73% chance

Combined xG of 4.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 68.4% vs bookmaker-implied 75.2%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.5%0-13.1%0-23.3%0-32.4%0-4+2.1%1 1-03.1%1-16.6%1-27.0%1-34.9%1-4+4.3%2 2-03.2%2-16.8%2-27.3%2-35.2%2-4+4.5%3 3-02.2%3-14.8%3-25.1%3-33.6%3-4+3.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-14.0%4+-24.3%4+-33.1%4+-4+2.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.7% 35.7% 2.80 +2.8%

Draw 20.5% 25.0% 4.00 -10.8%

Away win 42.8% 52.4% 1.91 -18.3%

Over 2.5 68.4% 75.2% 1.33 -9.0%

Over 3.5 49.4% 56.8% 1.76 -13.1%

BTTS 67.8% 76.9% 1.30 -11.9%

Home O1.5 60.2% 56.5% 1.77 +6.6%

Away O1.5 58.6% 68.5% 1.46 -14.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 3 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)2.1 BTTS prob67.8%

A 43% / xG 2.1-2.1 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–2 7.0%

#2 1–1 6.6%

#3 2–2 7.3%

#4 2–1 6.8%

#5 2–3 5.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Magni2.1

Kári2.1

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 49.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MAGNI · PPG 2.00

KÁRI · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

73%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.04 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Magni (H) 36.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +2.8%

Draw 20.5%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -10.8%

Kári (A) 42.8%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Magni face Kári in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Magni a 37% chance, the draw 21% and Kári 43%, so Kári are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Magni and 2.1 for Kári (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Magni are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.60 for Kári. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +28.8%.

Magni vs Kári Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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