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Haukar vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 14:00

Haukar

PPG 2.80 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

UPCOMING

Selfoss

PPG 1.80 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6% — a clear edge.

+15.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.4%0-11.8%0-21.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.0%1-15.4%1-23.5%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.0%2-18.0%2-25.3%2-32.3%2-4+1.0%3 3-05.9%3-17.9%3-25.2%3-32.3%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-09.2%4+-112.2%4+-28.1%4+-33.6%4+-4+1.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 61.4% 50.0% 2.00 +22.8%

Draw 16.0% 26.3% 3.80 -23.5%

Away win 22.5% 38.2% 2.62 -24.6%

Over 2.5 72.6% 78.1% 1.28 -7.1%

Over 3.5 52.5% 59.9% 1.67 -12.3%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 77.9% 67.6% 1.48 +15.3%

Away O1.5 42.2% 59.2% 1.69 -28.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 65%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob63.5%

H 61% / xG 3.0-1.3 / O2.5 73% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.0%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–2 3.5%

#4 1–1 5.4%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Haukar3.0

Selfoss1.3

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.5%

Form & verdict PPG

HAUKAR · PPG 2.80

SELFOSS · PPG 1.80

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

71%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.65 for Home, form 2.80 vs 1.80 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Haukar (H) 61.4%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV +22.8%

Draw 16.0%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -23.5%

Selfoss (A) 22.5%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -24.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Haukar face Selfoss in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Haukar a 61% chance, the draw 16% and Selfoss 23%, so Haukar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Haukar and 1.3 for Selfoss (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Haukar are averaging 2.80 points per game versus 1.80 for Selfoss. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +45.0%.

Haukar vs Selfoss Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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