Today / Iceland - 2. Deild / Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Dalvík / Reynir

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Dalvík / Reynir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Matchday 21 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 16:00

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWWW

UPCOMING

Dalvík / Reynir

PPG 0.70 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDLW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 73% chance

Model probability 77.9% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-11.9%0-21.1%0-30.4%0-4+0.2%1 1-04.6%1-15.5%1-23.3%1-31.3%1-4+0.5%2 2-06.8%2-18.2%2-24.9%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.8%3-18.1%3-24.9%3-31.9%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-010.4%4+-112.5%4+-27.5%4+-33.0%4+-4+1.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 67.7% 52.4% 1.91 +29.3%

Draw 16.3% 27.0% 3.70 -23.8%

Away win 16.0% 33.3% 3.00 -31.2%

Over 2.5 72.5% 76.9% 1.30 -5.8%

Over 3.5 50.8% 61.0% 1.64 -16.7%

BTTS 63.5% 80.0% 1.25 -20.6%

Home O1.5 77.9% 70.9% 1.41 +9.8%

Away O1.5 35.7% 56.5% 1.77 -36.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 58 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 59%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 69%

Score Hit 41%

ROI 5.2%

Bet Hit 70%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob63.5%

H 68% / xG 3.0-1.2 / O2.5 72% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.2%

#2 3–1 8.1%

#3 1–1 5.5%

#4 2–0 6.8%

#5 3–0 6.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir3.0

Dalvík / Reynir1.2

COMBINED 4.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.5% · O3.5 PROB 50.8%

Form & verdict PPG

FJARDABYGGD / LEIKNIR · PPG 1.60

DALVÍK / REYNIR · PPG 0.70

🎯 STRONG BET - PPG + Poisson + EV aligned

Chance this pick lands

73%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.77 for Home, form 1.60 vs 0.70 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir (H) 67.7%

ODDS 1.91 · IMPLIED 52.4% EV +29.3%

Draw 16.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -23.8%

Dalvík / Reynir (A) 16.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -31.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir face Dalvík / Reynir in Iceland - 2. Deild on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fjardabyggd / Leiknir a 68% chance, the draw 16% and Dalvík / Reynir 16%, so Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Fjardabyggd / Leiknir and 1.2 for Dalvík / Reynir (4.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fjardabyggd / Leiknir are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.70 for Dalvík / Reynir. The best value bet our model finds is TT_HomeO25, with an expected value of +30.9%.

Fjardabyggd / Leiknir vs Dalvík / Reynir Prediction— Iceland - 2. Deild

Match Preview & Prediction

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