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Uskok Klis vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Uskok Klis

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Varteks Varaždin

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

// Model verdict

Home 63% chance

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 67.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.9%0-23.5%0-31.2%0-4+0.4%1 1-011.1%1-111.5%1-26.0%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-09.4%2-19.7%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.2%3-15.4%3-22.8%3-31.0%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.9% 67.6% 1.48 -21.7%

Draw 24.3% 24.4% 4.10 -0.2%

Away win 22.8% 20.0% 5.00 +8.4%

Over 2.5 50.6% 58.8% 1.70 -14.0%

Over 3.5 31.6% 38.2% 2.62 -17.2%

BTTS 52.3% 55.6% 1.80 -5.9%

Home O1.5 49.9% 65.4% 1.53 -23.6%

Away O1.5 32.2% 25.1% 3.98 +28.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 27%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.3%

H 53% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–0 9.4%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Uskok Klis1.7

Varteks Varaždin1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

USKOK KLIS · PPG 1.70

VARTEKS VARAŽDIN · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.65 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Uskok Klis (H) 52.9%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -21.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -0.2%

Varteks Varaždin (A) 22.8%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Uskok Klis face Varteks Varaždin in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Uskok Klis a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Varteks Varaždin 23%, so Uskok Klis are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Uskok Klis and 1.0 for Varteks Varaždin (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Uskok Klis are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 0.84 for Varteks Varaždin. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +28.2%.

Uskok Klis vs Varteks Varaždin Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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