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Križevci vs Bjelovar Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Križevci

PPG 1.73 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

UPCOMING

Bjelovar

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

WL ···

// Model verdict

BTTS 56% chance

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.8%0-17.2%0-24.5%0-31.9%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.6%1-27.2%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.4%2-19.3%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-04.0%3-14.9%3-23.1%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.8%4+-21.8%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.6% 62.5% 1.60 -27.0%

Draw 24.5% 27.0% 3.70 -5.6%

Away win 29.9% 22.2% 4.50 +20.7%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 33.1% 33.7% 2.97 -1.7%

BTTS 55.9% 55.6% 1.80 +0.6%

Home O1.5 47.9% 58.5% 1.71 -18.1%

Away O1.5 36.8% 26.7% 3.75 +38.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 11 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 46%

O2.5 55%

BTTS 27%

Score Hit 18%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 36%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.9%

H 46% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.6%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 9.3%

#4 2–0 7.4%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Križevci1.6

Bjelovar1.2

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

KRIŽEVCI · PPG 1.73

BJELOVAR · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

Chance this pick lands

56%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.35 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Križevci (H) 45.6%

ODDS 1.60 · IMPLIED 62.5% EV -27.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV -5.6%

Bjelovar (A) 29.9%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +20.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Križevci face Bjelovar in Croatia - Second NL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Križevci a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Bjelovar 30%, so Križevci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Križevci and 1.2 for Bjelovar (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Križevci are averaging 1.73 points per game versus 1.40 for Bjelovar. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +38.0%.

Križevci vs Bjelovar Prediction— Croatia - Second NL

Match Preview & Prediction

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