Today / Poland - III Liga - Group 2 / Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście

Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Group II · Matchday 7 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Lipno Stęszew

PPG 1.11 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLL 

UPCOMING

Flota Świnoujście

PPG 1.66 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS 64% chance

Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.7%0-18.1%0-26.9%0-33.9%0-4+2.5%1 1-06.3%1-110.8%1-29.3%1-35.3%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.3%2-17.3%2-26.2%2-33.6%2-4+2.2%3 3-01.9%3-13.3%3-22.8%3-31.6%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.5%4+-21.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.8% 35.7% 2.80 -13.8%

Draw 24.1% 27.8% 3.60 -7.9%

Away win 45.1% 48.8% 2.05 -7.5%

Over 2.5 61.2% 60.6% 1.65 +1.0%

Over 3.5 39.0% 39.7% 2.52 -1.7%

BTTS 61.5% 65.4% 1.53 -5.9%

Home O1.5 39.4% 43.7% 2.29 -9.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 52.6% 1.90 -9.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 54%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 50%

ROI 14.7%

Bet Hit 71%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob61.5%

A 45% / xG 1.3-1.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.8%

#2 1–2 9.3%

#3 2–1 7.3%

#4 0–2 6.9%

#5 0–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Lipno Stęszew1.3

Flota Świnoujście1.7

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 39.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LIPNO STĘSZEW · PPG 1.11

FLOTA ŚWINOUJŚCIE · PPG 1.66

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.37 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Lipno Stęszew (H) 30.8%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.8%

Draw 24.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -7.9%

Flota Świnoujście (A) 45.1%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Lipno Stęszew face Flota Świnoujście in Poland - III Liga - Group 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Lipno Stęszew a 31% chance, the draw 24% and Flota Świnoujście 45%, so Flota Świnoujście are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Lipno Stęszew and 1.7 for Flota Świnoujście (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Lipno Stęszew are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 1.66 for Flota Świnoujście. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +1.0%.

Lipno Stęszew vs Flota Świnoujście Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Poland - III Liga - Group 2 Predictions