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Beltinci vs Krško Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 15:00

Beltinci

PPG 2.01 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWL ·

UPCOMING

Krško

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDLD ·

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 71% chance

Model probability 66.3% vs bookmaker-implied 73.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.4%0-13.9%0-21.7%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-09.8%1-18.7%1-23.8%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.0%2-19.7%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.3%3 3-08.2%3-17.3%3-23.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.9%4+-23.1%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 60.6% 78.1% 1.28 -22.4%

Draw 19.2% 21.1% 4.75 -5.3%

Away win 20.3% 13.3% 7.50 +31.4%

Over 2.5 61.4% 69.4% 1.44 -11.6%

Over 3.5 39.7% 46.5% 2.15 -14.6%

BTTS 54.6% 54.9% 1.82 -0.6%

Home O1.5 66.3% 73.0% 1.37 -9.2%

Away O1.5 25.5% 22.5% 4.45 +8.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 13 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 54%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 31%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob54.6%

H 61% / xG 2.2-0.9 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 11.0%

#2 1–1 8.7%

#3 2–1 9.7%

#4 1–0 9.8%

#5 3–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Beltinci2.2

Krško0.9

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BELTINCI · PPG 2.01

KRŠKO · PPG 1.00

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

71%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.36 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Beltinci (H) 60.6%

ODDS 1.28 · IMPLIED 78.1% EV -22.4%

Draw 19.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -5.3%

Krško (A) 20.3%

ODDS 7.50 · IMPLIED 13.3% EV +31.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Beltinci face Krško in Slovenia - 2. SNL on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Beltinci a 61% chance, the draw 19% and Krško 20%, so Beltinci are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Beltinci and 0.9 for Krško (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Beltinci are averaging 2.01 points per game versus 1.00 for Krško. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +8.1%.

Beltinci vs Krško Prediction— Slovenia - 2. SNL

Match Preview & Prediction

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